State of the Housing Market – McLean, VA 22101 – Quarter End 12/31/12

State of the Housing Market – McLean, VA 22101

Quarter End 12/31/12

There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.”

Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year. However, broad generalizations such as: “It’s a great time to buy,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Virginia. In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.

This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market. Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.

Chart (1) and Table (1) compare the number of active listings (the supply) to the number of properties sold or under contract (the demand) in the local real estate market of McLean (zip code 22101) by price range for the period from 7/1/12 – 12/31/12. The following chart depicts the relationship between supply, demand and price.

Based on the current data, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of the three ways:

Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) vs. Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)

Table 1.
Market Analysis for Zipcode 22101 (7/1/12-12/31/12)

		Solds +					Expireds +
		Contracts					Withdrawns
	Type of	(7/1/12-	Active				(7/1/12-
List Price Range	Market	12/31/12)	Listings	Difference			12/31/12)
$700,000-$899,999	Sellers’	47	7	40	or	85.11%	17
$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers’	45	13	32	or	71.11%	14
$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Sellers’	34	11	23	or	67.65%	10
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Balanced	33	30	3	or	9.09%	14
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Buyers’	11	14	-3	or	-27.27%	3
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Balanced	5	5	0	or	0.00%	2
$3,000,000+	Buyers’	10	20	-10	or	-100%	3

Summary of Zip Code 22101

$700,000- $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract is more than 6 times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If the homes that expired or were withdrawn from the market in the same time frame were put back on the market, there would still be close to twice the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as currently listed properties, and this price range would still be a sellers’ market.
$900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 3 times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the property listings that were withdrawn from the market or expired, there are still 2 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as currently listed properties, and this price range would stay a sellers’ market.
$1,200,000 – $1,499,000 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 3 times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, the number of sold properties plus under contract properties would still be more than 1 1/2 times the number of currently listed properties, and this price range would stay a sellers’ market.
$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently on the marketis almost equal to the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 and under contract propertiescombined, so it is close to a balanced market. If you factor in the 14 property listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would shift to a buyers’ market.
$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is slightly more than the number of properties that sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the 3 property listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.
$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is equal to the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or expired listings, this price range would shift to a buyers’ market.
$3,000,000 – and up – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is twice the number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 and the number of currently under contract listings combined: The 3 withdrawn expired listings, if they were put back on the market, would make the number of active listings 23 and make this price range a stronger buyers’ market.

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